TSX +1.3% on mining surge /// Auto exports down 32.5% — one year of tariffs with no deal in sight /// WTI oil $111/bbl — highest since 2008 /// USD/CAD $1.438 /// BoC rate 2.75% — next decision April 29 /// 5yr fixed 4.09% /// Stress test 6.41% /// Gold $3,112/oz /// U.S. flags Canadian booze ban as trade irritant /// Markets closed Good Friday — reopen Monday April 6 /// TSX +1.3% on mining surge /// Auto exports down 32.5% — one year of tariffs with no deal in sight /// WTI oil $111/bbl — highest since 2008 /// USD/CAD $1.438 /// BoC rate 2.75% — next decision April 29 /// 5yr fixed 4.09% /// Stress test 6.41% /// Gold $3,112/oz /// U.S. flags Canadian booze ban as trade irritant /// Markets closed Good Friday — reopen Monday April 6 ///
Daily Brief
slap.money
Canadian EditionSaturday, April 4, 2026
Trade / Auto Sector

One year of tariffs. Canada's auto industry is still bleeding — and there's no deal in sight.

It's been exactly one year since the Trump administration hit Canadian-assembled vehicles with a 25% tariff on all non-U.S. content. Auto exports cratered 32.5% to their lowest point since September 2021. The CVMA, which was cautiously optimistic a year ago, is now just cautious. Meanwhile, the U.S. Trade Representative released its annual trade barriers report this week — flagging Canada's provincial liquor bans and Ottawa's "Buy Canadian" policy as official irritants. Bay Street is fine. Windsor is not.

The slap.money verdict
If you work in manufacturing, construction, or any trade-exposed sector, this uncertainty isn't going away in 2026. The CUSMA review is the only number that matters for the Canadian economy right now — and nobody in Ottawa or Washington is treating it like it's urgent. Diversify your income. Build your emergency fund. Don't count on resolution before Q3.
Also Moving3 more stories you need to know
CBC News · Trade
The U.S. wants Canadian liquor shelves restocked with American booze — immediately and permanently
The USTR's annual trade barriers report called provincial liquor bans a major irritant and demanded they be reversed. Ontario's LCBO ban on U.S. spirits was popular with consumers. It's now a bargaining chip in CUSMA negotiations.
◉ Watch the trade shift
TD Economics · Oil & Inflation
Oil at $111/bbl is great for Canada's energy sector. It's terrible for everything else.
Middle East conflict has pushed WTI above $110 for the first time since 2008. TD Economics estimates this adds 0.8 percentage points to headline CPI — keeping inflation well above the BoC's 2% target into Q2. The April 29 rate decision just got a lot more complicated.
↓ Bad for rate cut hopes
Globe and Mail · Trade Diversification
Canadian exporters have recovered $11B of the $18.5B lost to U.S. tariffs. It's not enough.
Tapping 27 new trading partners, Canadian firms are moving faster than analysts expected. Trans Mountain oil exports to Asia hit an all-time high in October. The diversification story is real — just nowhere near big enough to replace the U.S. market if CUSMA collapses.
↑ Slow progress, but real
Money TipOne thing to do with your money today
→
Markets are closed Monday for Easter. Use the long weekend to actually review your portfolio.
With the TSX up on resource stocks, your portfolio may be more concentrated in energy and materials than you realize — especially if you hold a broad Canadian ETF like XIC or VCN. Log in this weekend and check your sector weights. If you're overweight Canada relative to your risk tolerance, the long weekend is a good time to rebalance before markets reopen April 6.
Even a small shift toward global diversification matters when Canadian trade risk is this elevated. Wealthsimple, Questrade, and TD all let you rebalance in under 10 minutes.
Canadian Angle
The BoC is stuck. And the April 29 decision is now the most important one of the year.

The Bank of Canada cut rates to 2.75% earlier this year. Since then, two things happened that make further cuts almost impossible: oil hit $111/bbl (adding to inflation) and Canada lost 83,000 jobs in February (adding to recession risk). Those two things don't usually happen at the same time. That's the BoC's nightmare — stagflation.

TD Economics is forecasting GDP growth of just 1.1% for 2026. Real GDP per capita — the number that actually measures how Canadians are doing individually — has been negative for three straight years. April 29 is the next rate announcement. The smart money is on a hold. Watch the March Labour Force Survey on April 11 — that's the number that sets the table.

WTF of the DayThe thing that should outrage you
Wait.
What?
Canadian auto exports fell 32.5% in January — the lowest level since September 2021. Windsor, Oshawa, Cambridge, Alliston — real cities, real workers, told a year ago this would be temporary. One year later, the CVMA's CEO went from "cautiously optimistic" to just "concerned." Meanwhile, the TSX is up 1.3% and Bay Street is having a great year. Canada's two-track economy — Bay Street booming, manufacturing bleeding — is not sustainable. And Ottawa still doesn't have a trade deal to show for it after 365 days.
ArchivePrevious issues
Friday, April 3, 2026
CA
In 11 of 13 Canadian cities, buying a home got harder in February. Nobody's talking about it.
Ratehub.ca data, the 6.41% stress test, and why the "perfect time to buy" isn't coming.
Thursday, April 2, 2026
CA
Tesla's worst quarter in years. What it actually means for the EV market.
Q1 deliveries fell quarter-over-quarter. Musk distraction. Competition. The numbers don't lie.
Wednesday, April 1, 2026
CA
Intel +9.65% in a day. The $14.2B bet on itself that Wall St loved.
Buying back its Ireland Fab 34 stake from Apollo. The turnaround narrative gets legs — finally.